What to expect in the coming year

It will not have escaped your attention that Prime Minister Sunak will need to call a general election at sometime during 2024. The very latest election date that can be held is 28 January 2025.

If results follow the polls, we are likely to see the Labour Party in charge once more.

New brooms

Politics being the moveable feast that it is, the crystal ball to forecast how a change of government will affect us has yet to be invented, but what will be the likely impacts?

The new incumbents will want to apply their legislative agenda as soon as possible and so we can expect a formal budget following the election.

Labour’s five point plan for growth

Their published agenda covers:

• Putting economic stability first by introducing a new fiscal lock to bring economic security back to our national and family finances.
• Getting Britain building again by reforming planning laws to kickstart 1.5 million new homes, transport, clean energy, and new industries in all parts of the country.
• Backing British business with a new industrial strategy created in partnership with business to maximise Britain’s strengths in life sciences, digital, creative, financial industries, clean power and automotive sectors. Creating a National Wealth Fund to unlock billions of pounds of private investment, crowding in 3 times the amount of public investment.
• Kickstarting a skills revolution. A new generation of Technical Excellence Colleges, offering more high quality apprenticeships and training opportunities tailored to local jobs in all parts of the country.
• Making Work Pay by introducing a new deal for working people and delivering a genuine living wage, banning zero hours contracts and ending fire and rehire.

Affordability will be a key issue, where will the money come from? Will we see higher taxes at the higher rates, will there be VAT changes (VAT charged on private school fees for example).

Of course, it is one thing to have the intent to drive home these agendas, it is quite another to achieve these lofty ideals if present international uncertainties are factored into the mix.

Expect change later rather than sooner

Whichever party or parties win control of the next parliament, initially, we are unlikely to see a rapid improvement in economic activity.

Interest rates are sticking at higher levels and many of us are faced with increasing mortgage repayments. Perhaps the Bank of England will lower bank rates as the year progresses.

Barring further unrest in the world – and with events in Israel and Ukraine continuing to unsettle world markets – the free flow of goods is likely to be disrupted and will provide upward pressure on prices.

On the basis that everything changes, let us hope that before we are faced with a further election in five years’ time, things will have changed for the better whoever takes charge of government in that period.

Meantime, we must soldier on

There is no doubt that the last few years have been extraordinarily difficult and challenging times. Let us hope that the new government will have the skills and will to ease the effects of these challenges and show us the light at the end of the tunnel.

Would it be too much to ask?